Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 11.047771 12.349463 13.833054 15.669786 17.912394 20.602261 24.137786
2024-10-20 9.079208 10.579386 12.408961 14.859211 18.145962 22.550922 29.192420
2024-10-27 7.908213 9.451071 11.413653 14.179786 18.136925 23.886781 33.548435
2024-11-03 7.897393 9.735735 12.200590 15.913097 21.711477 31.186658 50.104230
2024-11-10 7.583710 9.557668 12.307180 16.660501 23.948557 37.103361 68.002486
2024-11-17 6.924961 8.827139 11.529778 15.924516 23.569537 38.188460 76.237472
2024-11-24 6.532326 8.432972 11.194505 15.824601 24.251407 41.547351 93.106815
2024-12-01 6.170939 8.050487 10.832794 15.620661 24.685098 44.527759 112.193676
2024-12-08 5.896895 7.773108 10.602518 15.601318 25.460381 48.600210 141.164194
2024-12-15 5.698103 7.591632 10.502705 15.790777 26.693632 54.390863 190.144087
2024-12-22 5.400355 7.238672 10.096158 15.371231 26.537119 56.321164 224.177450
2024-12-29 5.204041 7.029812 9.908275 15.334724 27.228800 61.156896 298.128240
2025-01-05 4.890674 6.634525 9.405282 14.689784 26.502818 61.543267 343.024966
2025-01-12 4.586441 6.239416 8.879476 13.954301 25.451479 60.493803 373.139137
2025-01-19 4.327664 5.903901 8.434452 13.337002 24.594721 59.875777 413.117276
2025-01-26 4.446510 6.176497 9.048713 14.909004 29.665833 86.398757 2108.314602
2025-02-02 4.411145 6.194281 9.215882 15.583982 32.619203 108.682948 55437.869616
2025-02-09 4.191866 5.895307 8.790166 14.919329 31.460080 107.030472 455030.308200
2025-02-16 4.065415 5.746143 8.629639 14.828971 32.060981 117.320744 NaN
2025-02-23 3.935355 5.584795 8.436436 14.644443 32.329375 126.111410 NaN
2025-03-02 3.835036 5.469275 8.321334 14.626935 33.152635 140.817146 NaN
2025-03-09 3.763906 5.400121 8.288701 14.798376 34.684680 165.502334 NaN
2025-03-16 3.632060 5.220818 8.035851 14.418580 34.165119 169.673943 NaN